Researchers from University of Melbourne and Victoria University have developed a method, which allows more reliable and accurate predictions of the range of future global warming.
The findings published in the latest issue of Nature Climate Change indicate that if no measures are taken to lower emissions, the projected temperatures for year 2100 will be 2 degrees higher than today’s, as opposed to the previously estimated 6 degrees.
The uncertainty in the predictions is reduced by combining climate sensitivity, behaviour of the carbon cycle and the cooling effect of aerosols in a simple climate model. The high inaccuracies of previous models, as stated by the authors, come from the fact that only single sources have been considered.
The authors urge that greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced in order to avoid reaching the 2 degree target. They also indicate that uncertainties will always remain and therefore the existing knowledge should be used to limit possible risks.
